The quick take
Hershey is facing a split Halloween: shelf prices are higher, but more units are selling on discount so inventory moves. In the U.S., chocolate confectionary prices were up about 8% year-over-year according to Reuters. In Canada, prices rose roughly 10 to 20% year-over-year according to CBC News. This trend mirrors what hoppr iq clients have monitored in recent weeks. With these price increases due to tariffs and cocoa inflation, retailers leaned into markdowns to move inventory.
Why it matters
When list prices rise, the decision shifts to net price and promo depth. Hershey and its rivals needed discounts that move volume as shoppers were more weary of Halloween price creep, shrinkflation and the ongoing government shutdown. With Canada running hotter on confectionery inflation and U.S. prices still elevated, small changes in promo depth can move units quickly.
The broader read
The category is adjusting in real-time. Retailers are widening promotion on chocolate to protect sell-through, while some consumers mix in lower-cost non-chocolate confectionary to manage spend. Cocoa costs have eased from last year’s peak, but manufacturers are still passing through earlier cost spikes and tariff exposure. The next test is whether holiday promos keep dollar sales healthy without pushing unit sales the other way.
Why pricing intelligence matters more than ever
Teams should track three signals: the sell price after promo by banner, the share of units sold on deal, and the trade between chocolate and non-chocolate. Being priced right on Halloween chocolate alone is not enough as customers are looking to diversify into non-chocolate categories such as salty snacks. Using all of those reads, pricing teams should decide where a modest discount wins the basket, where to hold price, and which pack sizes keep margin healthy.
How hoppr iq helps with price intelligence
- Competitor price and promo tracking across retailers and marketplaces, refreshed on-demand during events.
- Trend dashboards that visualize top price moves, price gaps, and promo depth.
- Alerts and guardrails so your team reacts to meaningful changes instead of scanning pages.
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